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[로보틱스-2] 관절에 돈이 고인다

2026년 올해, 중국 저장에 로보틱스를 배우러 탐방을 간 적이 있다. 중국의 로봇굴기를 현지에서 느끼고자 나섰던 기회였다. 미래도시까지는 아니더라도 그들의 로봇에 대한 애정은 곳곳에 느껴졌다. 공산주의 정부의 강력한 로드맵은 어쩌면 시장주의보다 자원의 효율적 배분을 더욱 잘 이끌어 내는지도 모르겠다. 그래서, 중국의 굴기에 감탄과 공포에만 젖어 있어야 하는가? 나는 이 지점이 매우 불편했다. 한국의 AI 정책이 피부로 와닿는 지점은 결국 로봇이 될 텐데 어떻게 대응을 해야 할지 아무도 모르는 것만 같다는 어떠한 감을 느끼게 된다. 우리는 아마 매우 익숙한 경험이 있기 때문에 몸을 사리는지도 모른다. '수소'라는 아젠다가 공론이 되어 왔고 그 과정이 얼마나 무기력했는지도 알고 있다. 아무리 좋아 보여도 혼자 나대면 죽는다는 것을 한국의 직장인들은 너무나 잘 알고 있다. 다시 본론으로 돌아오자. 로봇 팔 하나를 열어 보면, 매끈한 흰색 껍데기 안 관절마다 손바닥만 한 쇳덩이가 박혀 있다. 감속기다. 빠르게 도는 모터의 힘을 느리고 세게 바꿔 주는 부품. 로봇이 무거운 것을 들고도 떨지 않는 건 대개 이 쇳덩이 덕분이다. 그리고 로봇 한 대 값의 절반쯤이 이 관절 언저리에서 갈린다. 사람들은 로봇의 얼굴을 보지만, 실제로 돈은 이 관절 역할을 하는 감속기에 모인다. 1부에서 나는 로봇의 머리 즉 두뇌 이야기를 했다. 지능이 담장 안으로 내려오고, 몸은 중국이 찍어내고, 머리는 미국에서 온다는 이야기. 이번에는 한 층 아래로 내려간다. 손목과 몸통. 실제로 쇠와 톱니로 만들어지고, 실제로 돈이 오가는 자리다. 이건 결국 중국과의 원가 싸움 아닌가 본론으로 내려가기 전에, 정직한 질문 하나를 통과해야 한다. 로봇은 결국 제조업이다. 쇠를 깎고, 감고, 조이고, 상자에 담아 파는 일. 그리고 제조업의 원가 싸움에서 중국을 이겨 본 기억을, 나는 최근 20년 사이에 몇 개 떠올리지 못한다. 태양광과 LCD가 어떻게 끝났는지 우리는 안다. 그렇다면 한국 로보...

[Monopoly-9] The Crumbling Fortress — Korea's Cosmetics Giants

A few days ago, at Olive Young, I meant to buy a tube of sunscreen and instead stood in front of the shelf for a long while. Not because I was choosing — because I couldn't. The display held far more brands I didn't know than brands I did, and the unfamiliar names all wore the confident faces of things that sell. The names that used to sit on the vanity at home when I was small, the names that for decades were almost synonyms for the word cosmetics in Korea, were either not there or off in a corner.

In the last chapter I watched a company that makes no clothes take hold of the clothing market. On the vanity table, almost the same thing is happening. Except that here the inversion is far more dramatic. A fortress wall that no one could once challenge has been coming down within a single generation.

Until now I have mostly looked at walls that hold. This story is the counterexample. A story that shows not how strong a wall is, but how a wall falls.

Two Castles

For a long time, in Korea, the word cosmetics meant two companies. AmorePacific and LG H&H. Their wall stood on three pillars. Brands built up over decades, a distribution web woven of department stores and door-to-door sales, and factories they built themselves. Anyone who wanted to sell cosmetics had to clear all three at once, so it was, in effect, a wall that could not be climbed. The arrangement went unshaken for decades, and so people assumed this wall, like the ones before it, would last. To be honest, until a few years ago, so did I.

The Moment the Numbers Flipped

Then, in 2025, the numbers quietly flipped.

Company2025 revenue2025 operating profitNote
AmorePacific Group4.6232 trillion won368 billion wonBest in six years, on growth in the U.S. and the West
LG H&H-170.7 billion won (-62.8%)Market cap at one-seventh of its peak
APR1.5273 trillion won (+111%)365.4 billion won (+198%)No. 1 in cosmetics by market cap
Gudai Global1.4718 trillion won (about 4x the year before)273.4 billion wonRoll-up of Beauty of Joseon, Skin1004, and others

APR — a name scarcely anyone knew only a few years ago — rose in 2025 to the largest market capitalization in Korean cosmetics. It passed both castles at once. More surprising still is the scale. APR's revenue is only a third of AmorePacific's, yet its operating profit was nearly the same. The old yardstick of revenue and the forward-looking yardstick of market cap pointed in opposite directions. And beside it stands another newcomer, Gudai Global. Starting from a brand called Beauty of Joseon, it bought up Skin1004, TIRTIR, Round Lab, and Skinfood in turn, building a body with annual revenue approaching 1.5 trillion won. And the largest share of that revenue now belongs not to the original Beauty of Joseon but to Skin1004, one of the brands it bought. The brands it acquired have outgrown the brand it began with — a wall built up by acquisition.

The People Who Removed the Threshold

Why did this wall fall so fast? The answer lies not with the side that attacked it, but in the fact that one of the pillars holding it up quietly slipped away. The pillar of manufacturing.

Korea today has two enormous cosmetics factories: Cosmax and Kolmar Korea. They sell no brand of their own. Instead, they make other people's. Bring nothing but an idea and a design, and these factories will press out the finished product — a cream, a sunscreen, whatever it is. At that moment, the highest threshold in cosmetics — the factory — disappeared. Anyone could now build a brand without owning one. The structure the last chapter showed through Musinsa and Sae-A Trading — the separation of the hands that make from the hands that sell — went, in cosmetics, all the way to tearing the wall down.

And then hundreds of small brands came pouring in from outside the wall. Names like Beauty of Joseon, TIRTIR, and d'Alba borrowed ODM factories to make their products, sold them through Olive Young and online, and went out to Japan and the United States. These were the very brands whose names I didn't know as I hovered at the shelf. Korean cosmetics exports set an all-time record in 2025, and the protagonists were not the two castles but these small brands. The old distribution pillar of department stores and door-to-door sales shook alongside, up against Olive Young and the internet. The wall's three pillars slipped out almost at once.

The Same M&A, Opposite Directions

The newcomers grow in two different ways as well. APR dug one well deep — its own brands and beauty devices — while Gudai Global bulked up by collecting brands that were already selling. And here the last chapter's Sae-A Trading comes back to mind. Its holding company, Global Sae-A, also grew through M&A. Only the direction was exactly opposite. Gudai Global bought brands inside its own trade, cosmetics, and succeeded; Global Sae-A bought construction and paper outside its trade, clothes, and staggered. The same acquisitions — and what divided their fates was whether you buy inside the courtyard where you can name your own price, or outside it.

There was a time when AmorePacific and LG H&H could name their own price. The name on the label commanded a premium. But the moment a similar ODM-made cream appeared on the next shelf at half the price, that power evaporated fast. The wall that once named the price found itself chasing prices instead.

That is why cosmetics is the most important counterexample in this series. Walls are not forever. Above all, the moment the technology that formed a wall's threshold is released for hire, the wall comes down astonishingly fast. This is why, when you look at a wall, you must look not only at its height but also at the doors and thresholds set into it.

The People Who Don't Leave

The difference between a falling castle and a newly rising wall is inscribed, too, in the time of the people who work inside them.

CompanyEmployeesAverage annual payAverage tenureRevenue per employeeOperating profit per employee
AmorePacific Co.4,748102.26 million won13.7 yearsapprox. 900 million wonapprox. 71 million won
LG H&H4,01387.57 million won15.1 yearsapprox. 1.58 billion wonapprox. 43 million won
APR65795.46 million won2.2 yearsapprox. 2.3 billion wonapprox. 560 million won
Gudai Global189*Not disclosedNot disclosedapprox. 2.4 billion wonapprox. 740 million won

※ Rough figures for FY2025. AmorePacific figures are for AmorePacific Co. on a separate basis; LG H&H divides consolidated revenue and operating profit by parent-company headcount, so subsidiary shares are mixed in. APR's average pay is the disclosed average including gains from exercised stock options. *Gudai Global is on a separate (parent-entity) basis — the headcount of 189 comes from National Pension enrollment data (total consolidated headcount is not published), and per-employee values are computed from separate revenue of 456.5 billion won and operating profit of 139.6 billion won; pay and tenure are undisclosed.

What held my eye longest in this table is the bottom row. A company turning over 1.4718 trillion won in consolidated revenue keeps 189 people at its head office. Even on the parent's own books alone, that is about 2.4 billion won of business per person. The number, of course, comes with a caveat. The body of that 1.4718 trillion is made not by the 189 at headquarters but by the people of the brand companies it bought — TIRTIR, Skin1004, Round Lab. And the hands that stir the cream and fill the jars are not among them either. The making is done by ODM factories; the company holds only the brands and the contracts. So these figures are not some superhuman productivity, but the value that lays bare the nature of the brand roll-up as a business. Take the factory pillar out of the wall, and what remains in the company is names and contracts. And on that alone, nearly 1.5 trillion won turns over.

The grain of time divides just as sharply. On the castle side, people stay thirteen to fifteen years. Even while the companies shook, the people did not leave, or could not. On the side of the new wall, people stay barely two. Even while the company grows white-hot, people pass quickly through. Which side's time is the better one, I cannot easily say. The companies of those who kept fifteen years left 71 million and 43 million won of profit per head; the company of those who stay two years left 560 million per head. A difference in density of roughly eight times. The difference between the fallen rampart and the new wall is, in the end, this difference in density too.

Next time I go to Olive Young I will hover in front of unfamiliar names again. Some of them will still be there in ten years, and some will have quietly disappeared. And perhaps one of them will become the next generation's fortress wall, and the protagonist of another story about being torn down by someone else. The story of walls carries on that way.

This is where the story of walls built alone comes to an end. Walls that stood each by themselves — by law, by habit, by time, sometimes even by falling. But there is another way to raise a wall. If a wall built alone can fall this easily, might several walls standing shoulder to shoulder, defended together, last a little longer? From the next story, we enter the walls defended by many — oligopoly.

This piece is part of the "Korea Value Chain" series and is an original work. It is an analysis based on public data and industry sources; some figures and assessments are estimates. It is not intended as a direct basis for investment decisions.

By Alexandro Lee · July 2026

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