기본 콘텐츠로 건너뛰기

추천 가젯

[밸류체인 데일리 브리핑] 2026-08-11 시황

Value-chain Analytics 데일리 브리핑 2026. 08. 11 (화요일) 오늘의 시황 한눈에 에너지·원자재: 국제유가는 호르무즈 협상 교착으로 5% 급등하며 WTI가 80달러대에 재진입했습니다. 정유사의 석유 수출 물량은 정부 통제 상한선에 미치지 못한 가운데, 가스발전 허가와 폭염에 따른 태양광 발전 증가가 전력 공급 안정 및 기후 공약 논란과 함께 부각되고 있습니다. 동시에 인도는 중국 의존도를 낮추기 위해 희토류 자석 자립화를 추진하고 있으며, 한국 배터리 산업은 인도네시아 의존도가 높은 니켈 공급망을 핵심 취약 요인으로 안고 있습니다. 포스코홀딩스의 2.5조원 확보와 리튬, LNG, 희토류 투자 계획, 고려아연의 한미 광물산업 생태계 참여 가능성도 공급망 재편 흐름을 보여줍니다. 기업 재편·자금조달: KDB생명 인수전은 흥국생명, 한화생명, 한국투자금융지주의 3파전으로 전개되고 있으며, 한화그룹은 KAI 지분 15% 이상 확보를 바탕으로 기업결합심사를 신청할 예정입니다. 제약바이오 업계에서도 합병과 분할을 통한 구조 재편이 빨라지는 모습입니다. 오픈AI는 상장 준비와 연계된 70억달러 규모 구주 매각을 완료했고, 엔비디아는 AI 인프라에 대규모 금융자본을 유치하려는 구상을 내놓았습니다. AI 기업의 기업가치와 자금 조달 규모가 커지는 가운데, 앤스로픽이 위험한 AI의 출시를 정부가 막아야 한다고 주장하면서 산업 성장과 규제 사이의 긴장도 커지고 있습니다. 반도체·배터리·디스플레이: 정부는 5조원 규모의 반도체 신규 펀드를 조성해 메가 클러스터 구축을 지원하고, HBM은 12단에서 8단으로의 후퇴 검토가 제기되며 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 수율 경쟁이 중요 변수로 떠올랐습니다. TSMC는 차세대 CoPoS 패키징 생산라인을 완공했지만 기술 성숙까지 1년이 필요하다는 평가가 나왔습니다. 배터리 분야에서는 삼성SDI의 미국 LFP 생산 계획과 2028년 공급 부족 전망이 제시됐고, CATL은 항공...

[Value Chain Journey-8] The Bottom of the Chain — Korea Zinc & the Traders

There was a time when you put your hand in your pocket and found a few coins. These days it finds a smartphone instead. Either way, that cool touch at your fingertips came, in the end, from under the ground. Copper and nickel and zinc — metals with more names we don't know than names we do. A journey back up a chain always ends in the same place. The ground. Semiconductors, batteries, plastics — all of them are made, finally, from something dug out of the earth. This trip goes to that very bottom, the world of minerals and raw materials. And down here runs one of the strangest flows of money in any chain we have seen.

The mine pays the smelter.

The Fee That Flows Backward

In an ordinary chain, the ones below pay the ones above. But in the world of minerals, the mine that digs the ore pays a processing fee to the smelter that turns that ore into metal. This payment, called the treatment charge (TC), is a thermometer showing how precious the smelting link is. And in the past few years, the thermometer froze. As China expanded its smelters at a ferocious pace, a scramble for ore broke out, and the benchmark treatment charge for zinc smelting collapsed from $274 a ton to $80. In the spot market it finally went negative — smelters actually paying mines a premium to take their ore.

The price of the smelting link had, in effect, evaporated. By that logic, the company with the world's largest smelter should be going under. What happened was the exact opposite.

The Company That Earns Even as the Fee Collapses

In Onsan, Ulsan, stands a plant that produces more zinc and lead than any other single smelter in the world. Korea Zinc. Its 2025 report card reads like this.

Korea Zinc (FY2025)Value
Revenue16,581.2 billion won (+37.6%)
Operating profit1,232.4 billion won (+70.3%) — all-time high
Record44 consecutive years of operating profit

A record profit in the very year the fee for its core business fell below half. The secret is inside the ore. Zinc ore does not contain only zinc. Gold and silver, copper, antimony, indium and other metals are mixed in in trace amounts, and Korea Zinc scrapes metal out of ore at up to 98.5% recovery, pulling out more than twenty metals at once. Even with the fee gone, the silver and gold scraped from what others throw away fill in the profit. As it happened, silver jumped more than 140% in 2025 alone, resetting its highest price in 45 years. The proposition of Part 3 is proven here once more. Value pools at the narrowest link — and in this chain, the narrowest link was not smelting itself but the recovery technology that scrapes even the dregs.

As an aside, this was the first time I properly looked up what zinc is actually used for. The largest share, it turns out, is galvanizing — plating iron so it doesn't rust. Streetlight poles, highway guardrails, corrugated tin roofs. Zinc, in other words, is not a metal that stands out but a metal that corrodes away first so that other metals are spared. There is even a use with the somewhat solemn name of sacrificial anode. Such, mostly, is the fate of what comes up from the bottom of the chain. It is everywhere, and nobody calls it by name.

The Minerals Beneath Our Feet

But wait. What, exactly, lies under our own ground? The answer is a little forlorn. The story of Korean mining now comes down to two words: closed mines, and limestone.

Coal first. Hwasun in 2023, Jangseong in 2024, and then Dogye in June 2025. As Korea Coal Corporation's last collieries closed one after another, an entire era ended whole. The country now has exactly one coal mine left, privately run. A reader who has been with this book from the beginning will remember: the first wall of this series, Kangwon Land in Jeongseon, was born on precisely that ground of closed mines. Where coal died, the law raised a wall called a casino, and it was at that wall that this long journey began. Only after descending to the chain's very bottom does the backdrop of the first chapter finally complete itself.

After coal's departure, what accounts for most of domestic mining is limestone. This white rock, carved out of the mountains of Gangwon and North Chungcheong, becomes the gray powder of the cement companies we saw earlier. This is why the cement plants cluster, of all places, in Gangwon. A country that imports nearly all its metals and quarries stone: that is the present address of what lies beneath our feet. And then, recently, an unexpected light came on in this forlorn map. The Sangdong mine in Yeongwol, Gangwon — once a world-class tungsten mine, asleep for 32 years — has opened its doors again. What woke it was not Korea but American capital, and the reason was China's blockade of tungsten exports. It means we live in an age that resurrects even dead mines. Who resurrects them, and why. That answer is the next part of this chapter.

Where the State Grips the Link

At this very bottom, there is one more hand that sets the price. The state.

Starting in 2023, China placed gallium and germanium, graphite, antimony, tungsten, and rare earths on its export-control lists, one after another. The United States slapped tariffs on copper and then lifted them, swinging the price by 20% in a single day. Korea's imports of critical minerals lean on China for 80–90%, depending on the item. As lithium did in the battery chain and shale did in petrochemicals, the bottom link of the chain is now gripped and shaken not by companies but by states. And in that turn of events, Korea Zinc's standing has changed. The company is the only domestic producer of antimony, indium, and bismuth — one of the Western world's few non-Chinese suppliers. A plan is under way to build a large smelter in Tennessee as a joint venture with US government participation, and in the process the American side has come to hold roughly 10% of the company's shares. The balance weight in a management dispute now running into its several years sits, in effect, in hands across the Pacific. In the age of minerals, a single smelter becomes a piece on the diplomatic board.

The Old Craft of Those Who Cannot Name a Price

Down here lives another breed of company: the trading houses that buy, carry, and sell minerals and grain and energy. POSCO International and LX International. Their books give the most honest answer to this book's question — "Can this company name its own price?"

Trading houses (FY2025)RevenueOperating profitNote
POSCO International32,373.6 billion won1,165.3 billion won (+4.3%)All-time high · one-third of profit from the Myanmar gas field
LX International16,706.3 billion won292.2 billion won (-40.3%)Profit evaporated as coal prices fell

The whole essence of the trading business is in this table. Revenue is enormous, and the margin on trading itself is 1–2%. Move 100 won's worth, keep a little over 1. And when coal prices fell, 40% of LX International's annual operating profit evaporated in a year. The market sets the price, and the trading house merely glides thinly across its surface. Conversely, the secret behind POSCO International's record profit is not trading either. Of its trillion won of annual profit, a third comes from a single gas field in Myanmar — a legacy left behind by the old Daewoo trading men. LX bought a nickel mine in Indonesia. Those who cannot name a price answer, in the end, by buying stakes in the links that can. You might even say the trading houses are, little by little, ceasing to be trading houses.

The Money One Person Turns — The People Who Don't Leave

What shows these two essences most clearly is not the company but the numbers broken down to the single person.

CompanyEmployeesAverage annual payAverage tenureRevenue per employeeOperating profit per employee
Korea Zinc (smelting)About 2,120About 111 million won12.3 yearsAbout 7.8 billion wonAbout 580 million won
POSCO International (trading)About 1,930About 140 million won13.1 yearsAbout 17 billion wonAbout 600 million won
LX International (trading)About 450Around 100 million won8.6 yearsAbout 37 billion wonAbout 650 million won

* Per-employee figures are rough estimates: consolidated results divided by parent-company headcount.

Stare at this table for a moment and something odd emerges. The profit one person generates is roughly the same at all three companies, around 600 million won. What differs is the money that has to be turned over to make that 600 million. One person at the smelter handles 7.8 billion and keeps that share; one person at a trading house must turn 37 billion to keep the same. Five times the volume, on margins five times thinner. This is the essence of the trading business. Those without a wall must squeeze out, with volume and information and credit, the same result that those with a wall get from the wall. And as LX's profit evaporating 40% in a single year shows, the acrobatics shake whenever the market shakes. If what protects the smelter's margin is the technological wall of 98.5% recovery, what protects the trading man's margin is nothing but his own sense of balance.

And yet at all three companies, pay hovers over the 100 million mark, and people stay around a decade. Picture, especially, the LX office where one person turns 37 billion won, and an odd feeling comes over you. Sliding bare across the world's markets, without a wall, turns out to be — for the person actually doing it — a rather snug place to work. Beside the Onsan smelter that has not known a deficit in half a century, and at the Yeouido-style trading desks turning tens of billions, people stay a long time. The wall at the very bottom, and the wall-less acrobatics: both, in the end, are held up by time and by people.

With this, we have come all the way down to the bottom of the chain. We have seen, in turn, chains where value scatters and chains where it pools, chains that leak upstream and chains gripped by the state. What I learned by coming down is that the ground beneath our feet is emptier than I had thought. A country of closed mines and limestone. I finger the smartphone in my pocket again. Of the metals inside it, almost none will have come from our ground. Whether that is something to be forlorn about, or merely a matter of geography, I am still postponing judgment. One question remains. What, then, becomes of the one who holds every link of the chain in his hands? Having all the places where value pools, he ought to be the richest of all — and there is a place where the reality is the reverse. The last journey is the story of a group that held production, distribution, exhibition, and broadcasting all at once, and collapsed.

This piece is part of the "Korea Value Chain" series and is an original work. It is an analysis based on public data and industry sources; some figures and assessments are estimates. It is not intended as a direct basis for investment decisions.

By Alexandro Lee · July 2026

댓글

가장 많이 본 글