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[로보틱스-2] 관절에 돈이 고인다

2026년 올해, 중국 저장에 로보틱스를 배우러 탐방을 간 적이 있다. 중국의 로봇굴기를 현지에서 느끼고자 나섰던 기회였다. 미래도시까지는 아니더라도 그들의 로봇에 대한 애정은 곳곳에 느껴졌다. 공산주의 정부의 강력한 로드맵은 어쩌면 시장주의보다 자원의 효율적 배분을 더욱 잘 이끌어 내는지도 모르겠다. 그래서, 중국의 굴기에 감탄과 공포에만 젖어 있어야 하는가? 나는 이 지점이 매우 불편했다. 한국의 AI 정책이 피부로 와닿는 지점은 결국 로봇이 될 텐데 어떻게 대응을 해야 할지 아무도 모르는 것만 같다는 어떠한 감을 느끼게 된다. 우리는 아마 매우 익숙한 경험이 있기 때문에 몸을 사리는지도 모른다. '수소'라는 아젠다가 공론이 되어 왔고 그 과정이 얼마나 무기력했는지도 알고 있다. 아무리 좋아 보여도 혼자 나대면 죽는다는 것을 한국의 직장인들은 너무나 잘 알고 있다. 다시 본론으로 돌아오자. 로봇 팔 하나를 열어 보면, 매끈한 흰색 껍데기 안 관절마다 손바닥만 한 쇳덩이가 박혀 있다. 감속기다. 빠르게 도는 모터의 힘을 느리고 세게 바꿔 주는 부품. 로봇이 무거운 것을 들고도 떨지 않는 건 대개 이 쇳덩이 덕분이다. 그리고 로봇 한 대 값의 절반쯤이 이 관절 언저리에서 갈린다. 사람들은 로봇의 얼굴을 보지만, 실제로 돈은 이 관절 역할을 하는 감속기에 모인다. 1부에서 나는 로봇의 머리 즉 두뇌 이야기를 했다. 지능이 담장 안으로 내려오고, 몸은 중국이 찍어내고, 머리는 미국에서 온다는 이야기. 이번에는 한 층 아래로 내려간다. 손목과 몸통. 실제로 쇠와 톱니로 만들어지고, 실제로 돈이 오가는 자리다. 이건 결국 중국과의 원가 싸움 아닌가 본론으로 내려가기 전에, 정직한 질문 하나를 통과해야 한다. 로봇은 결국 제조업이다. 쇠를 깎고, 감고, 조이고, 상자에 담아 파는 일. 그리고 제조업의 원가 싸움에서 중국을 이겨 본 기억을, 나는 최근 20년 사이에 몇 개 떠올리지 못한다. 태양광과 LCD가 어떻게 끝났는지 우리는 안다. 그렇다면 한국 로보...

[Value Chain Journey-5] The Chain That Leaks Upstream — Battery Materials

A few nights ago, I walked past an electric car charging in the underground lot of my apartment building. Between the dark pillars, a single green light was blinking quietly. The car was asleep while the vessel inside it stayed awake, receiving drop by drop the electricity a power plant had sent. In the last journeys I saw the places where that electricity is made. This time it is the chain of the vessel that holds it. The battery. Running an electric car, storing the electricity an AI data center will use at night — in the end, both are this vessel's job.

At making battery cells, Korea stands near the top of the world. LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, SK On. Though even that standing is not what it was: pressed by China's giants, the three companies' share shrinks a little each year. And when you trace this chain upward, you watch the place where the value pools drift off in an unexpected direction. Making a finished battery well and making serious money from it, it turns out, are different stories.

Finished Cells Have Few Customers

Start with the finished battery. The "paradox of the small wall" we saw in semiconductor bonding repeats itself here. Korea's big three are world-class, but their customers are, in the end, a handful of automakers. With so few customers, however good the cell, you cannot name the price you like. On top of that, with the mass adoption of electric cars running later than expected — the so-called chasm — the whole chain has been catching its breath for several years now.

As an aside: the word chasm, I'm told, comes originally from geology. A deep split in the earth — terrain where the far side is in plain view and you still cannot walk across. For a name attached to this chain it is excessively accurate, and when I first looked up the meaning I couldn't help laughing a little.

One Layer Down — Cathode Materials

So we climb one more layer up the chain. The key material that accounts for a large share of a battery's cost: cathode materials. Here stand Korean companies like EcoPro BM, POSCO Future M, and L&F. But stop at this station, and one of the chain's sad truths comes into view. The value does not pool here either. It leaks further upstream.

To make cathode materials you need minerals like lithium and nickel, and the upstream that mines and refines them is overwhelmingly in China's grip. In particular, the cheap lithium iron phosphate family, where demand is now exploding, is one where China effectively sets the world's standard. Korea's companies, in the middle of the chain, make exquisite materials well — but they can name neither the price of their inputs nor the price of the finished product. From above, Chinese minerals press down on the price; from below, a handful of automakers. It is the fate of the one caught in the middle of the chain.

The Courtyard Is Moving

Even so, a new courtyard is opening on this chain. While electric cars stall, demand is growing fast for the large storage installations — ESS — that hold the electricity AI data centers will use. And as America moves to shut China out of battery materials, a space has opened for Korean-made lithium iron phosphate cathode materials to wedge into. That is why a company like L&F is pouring hundreds of billions of won into building a plant for this new cathode material. On a chain where value leaks away, the companies are hurrying to move toward where the courtyard is going.

What this chain teaches is a footnote to the thesis of Part 3. Value pools at the narrowest link, I said — but that link is not necessarily inside your own country. On this battery chain, the narrowest and most fearsome link is the Chinese factories that refine lithium. Trace the chain up far enough and you arrive, in the end, at the very bottom of everything: minerals.

The People Who Don't Leave

CompanyEmployeesAverage payAverage tenureRevenue per employeeOperating profit per employee
LG Energy Solution (cells)12,922about 112 million won8.2 yearsabout 1.83 billion wonabout 100 million won
EcoPro BM (cathode materials)1,192+about 61 million won4.7 yearsabout 2.1 billion wonabout 120 million won
L&F (cathode materials)1,924about 60.4 million won4.3 yearsabout 1.12 billion wonabout -81 million won (loss)

* Per-employee figures are rough values: FY2025 consolidated results divided by disclosed headcount. LG Energy Solution's pay reflects bonuses from the profit-surge years. EcoPro BM's headcount is Korea-only, excluding overseas subsidiaries, so its per-employee values may be somewhat inflated. For L&F, the operating loss (-156.8 billion won) is divided by headcount as is.

What catches the eye in this table is neither the pay nor the revenue but the tenure. 4.3 years, 4.7 years. After the fifteens and seventeens of the earlier chains, you see at a glance how young this industry is. And L&F's 1,924 people are each carrying a loss of some 80 million won on their backs — a loss larger than their own pay. Yet they do not leave; they stay, and draw up the blueprints for the new cathode materials plant. They are holding out through the time of the chasm on the time of people who believe there is a far side. If the timetable of an industry whose wall is finished reads fifteen years of tenure, this is what the timetable of an industry still building its wall looks like. On the day this young tenure turns double-digit, will the chain's wall stand finished along with it? I cannot know. But if, even then, the value is still leaking upstream, this table will remain a somewhat forlorn record.

There are places, though, where it is not the price but the number of customers that decides a chain's fate. The next journey goes to a chain that for a long time had exactly one customer. That one customer was the government, and so it was the government that set the price — defense.

This piece is part of the "Korea Value Chain" series and is an original work. It is an analysis based on public data and industry sources; some figures and assessments are estimates. It is not intended as a direct basis for investment decisions.

By Alexandro Lee · July 2026

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