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[밸류체인 데일리 브리핑] 2026-08-11 시황

Value-chain Analytics 데일리 브리핑 2026. 08. 11 (화요일) 오늘의 시황 한눈에 에너지·원자재: 국제유가는 호르무즈 협상 교착으로 5% 급등하며 WTI가 80달러대에 재진입했습니다. 정유사의 석유 수출 물량은 정부 통제 상한선에 미치지 못한 가운데, 가스발전 허가와 폭염에 따른 태양광 발전 증가가 전력 공급 안정 및 기후 공약 논란과 함께 부각되고 있습니다. 동시에 인도는 중국 의존도를 낮추기 위해 희토류 자석 자립화를 추진하고 있으며, 한국 배터리 산업은 인도네시아 의존도가 높은 니켈 공급망을 핵심 취약 요인으로 안고 있습니다. 포스코홀딩스의 2.5조원 확보와 리튬, LNG, 희토류 투자 계획, 고려아연의 한미 광물산업 생태계 참여 가능성도 공급망 재편 흐름을 보여줍니다. 기업 재편·자금조달: KDB생명 인수전은 흥국생명, 한화생명, 한국투자금융지주의 3파전으로 전개되고 있으며, 한화그룹은 KAI 지분 15% 이상 확보를 바탕으로 기업결합심사를 신청할 예정입니다. 제약바이오 업계에서도 합병과 분할을 통한 구조 재편이 빨라지는 모습입니다. 오픈AI는 상장 준비와 연계된 70억달러 규모 구주 매각을 완료했고, 엔비디아는 AI 인프라에 대규모 금융자본을 유치하려는 구상을 내놓았습니다. AI 기업의 기업가치와 자금 조달 규모가 커지는 가운데, 앤스로픽이 위험한 AI의 출시를 정부가 막아야 한다고 주장하면서 산업 성장과 규제 사이의 긴장도 커지고 있습니다. 반도체·배터리·디스플레이: 정부는 5조원 규모의 반도체 신규 펀드를 조성해 메가 클러스터 구축을 지원하고, HBM은 12단에서 8단으로의 후퇴 검토가 제기되며 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 수율 경쟁이 중요 변수로 떠올랐습니다. TSMC는 차세대 CoPoS 패키징 생산라인을 완공했지만 기술 성숙까지 1년이 필요하다는 평가가 나왔습니다. 배터리 분야에서는 삼성SDI의 미국 LFP 생산 계획과 2028년 공급 부족 전망이 제시됐고, CATL은 항공...

[Oligopoly-1] Sugar Is Innocent — The First Collusion

Sugar is white. And it looks, for the most part, harmless. When we tip a spoonful into our morning coffee, we don't stop to wonder where the white powder came from, who made it, or how its price was set. Sugar is just sugar — one of the most innocent-looking things in the world. And then, in February 2026, a 400-billion-won collusion case walked out from behind that white powder.

Until now I've been walking past walls that one company held alone. For a while, I'm going to look at a slightly different kind of wall. Not one company's wall, but a wall that a few companies stand along, side by side, and keep together. Economics calls this an oligopoly. And an oligopoly carries one quiet temptation that a monopoly never knows. It's just the few of us anyway — why bleed fighting each other when we could simply, discreetly, line up our prices? The story of sugar is a story about that temptation.

A White Market Split Three Ways

Only three companies, for all practical purposes, make sugar in Korea: CJ CheilJedang, Samyang Corporation, and TS Corporation. By 2024 domestic sales volume, CJ CheilJedang takes about half at 49%, Samyang about a third at 32%, and TS Corporation the remaining 19%. Together, 89%. Smaller names scrap over the leftover 11%, but this white market belongs, in effect, to three companies.

Why is there no fourth? Making sugar takes big plants and heavy equipment. But the wall that stands taller than that is the tariff. Import raw sugar, the raw material, and the duty is 3%; import finished sugar, and 30% is added. Ten times as much. So cheap foreign sugar has no real way of shaking the domestic market. Even when an importer brings in raw sugar aiming for the 3% rate, customs analysis usually rules it to be 30% sugar — or so I'm told. There is a door, but the threshold stands as tall as a grown man. And this tall threshold makes an exceedingly cozy fence for the three companies. Since no one outside can get in, the three inside need only mind one another. Which is exactly where the trouble begins.

CompanySugar market share (2024)Collusion fine (final ruling)
CJ CheilJedang~49%138.3 billion won
Samyang Corporation~32%130.2 billion won
TS Corporation~19%127.3 billion won
Three companies combined~89%395.9 billion won

Four Years, Eight Times

According to the Fair Trade Commission's investigation, the three companies set sugar prices together for more than four years, from February 2021 to April 2025. They moved the price eight times — six times up, twice down. One newspaper summed it up as "light speed on the way up, a tortoise on the way down." It would be hard to capture the nature of a cartel any better.

The method was startlingly organized. Executives at the CEO and division-head level would meet and set the broad direction of a price move; then sales executives and sales team leaders would meet again and coordinate when and how each customer would be notified. In negotiations with any given account, the company with the largest share of that account took the lead, and the results were divided among the three. It was less a competition between three companies than one company moving with three faces. It was a wall the KFTC broke only after tailing them for more than two years — and only then, thanks to one company's confession.

In February 2026, the KFTC announced fines totaling 408.3 billion won. In the final ruling that figure came down to 395.9 billion. CJ CheilJedang 138.3 billion, Samyang 130.2 billion, TS Corporation 127.3 billion. Even so, it is the second-largest amount ever levied in a single collusion case. But there is one twist at the end. The commission that had vowed to crack down shaved more than ten billion won off the announced figure in its final ruling. And the three companies wouldn't accept even that — all three have refused the decision and are contesting it in court. Even the hand that punishes a cartel is, somewhere, a little soft.

And the truly chilling part lies elsewhere. These same three companies were fined 51.1 billion won back in 2007 — for fixing sugar prices, the exact same offense. They were caught once, they were punished, and then they did it again. The fact that this was a repeat offense is what made the fine heavy this time; whether a heavy fine will prevent the next collusion, no one can say. It didn't last time.

The Higher the Wall, the Cozier the Inside

Earlier, writing about the three telecom companies, I said they moved "as if they had colluded, without colluding" — that quiet equilibrium in which the plans all come to resemble one another and no one cuts price first. The three sugar companies went exactly one step further. Not as if they had colluded. They actually did. And they got caught. The distance between telecom and sugar is closer than you'd think. The structure of oligopoly itself is always whispering that one step.

When no new competitor can enter from outside, the few inside lose any real reason to beat one another. Cut prices to win and everyone loses; read the room and match prices, and everyone is comfortable. The tall threshold of the tariff, meant to protect consumers, ended up protecting the three companies' collusion instead. Which is why, when I look at an oligopoly, I look at the market's threshold before I look at the shares. The higher the threshold, the more excessively cozy the inside is for somebody.

The 400 billion won in fines will, in the end, be paid by the companies. But the sugar price that was quietly stacked a little higher over four years — we have already paid that, split among us, through every cup of coffee, every bag of cookies, every slice of bread. A cartel's bill always arrives last, and arrives quietly. And it is usually addressed to us.

Inside the Colluding Companies

Inside the fence of the three companies that split a 400-billion-won fine, things are surprisingly ordinary.

CompanyEmployeesAverage annual payAverage tenureRevenue per employeeOperating profit per employee
CJ CheilJedang8,23284.11 million won9.3 years~880 million won~23 million won
Samyang Corporation1,25786.2 million won13.3 years~1.51 billion won~52 million won
TS Corporation32072.43 million won13.6 years~3.25 billion won~150 million won

Basis: FY2025 (2025-12-31) annual report employee data; revenue and operating profit per employee on a separate (non-consolidated) financial statement basis.

Pay runs in the 70-to-80-million-won range, tenure nine to fourteen years — not much different from any mid-sized food company. The sturdy structure that blocked competition with tariffs outside and quietly matched prices inside doesn't seem to have come back to the employees as anything especially generous. Where a cartel's gains end up is, for the most part, not in employees' bank accounts. Still, there is one odd irony in the bottom row of the table. TS Corporation — the smallest of the three, all of 320 people — grew its separate-basis operating profit by 114.5% in 2025, leaving 150 million won of profit per person. The old wall called sugar left its thickest share to the smallest company.

The next story is another oligopoly. This time it's the glass we tip at the end of the day: beer. I want to look at a quiet dominion that goes by the name of Cass — where one glass in every two, without fail, belongs to the same company.

This piece is part of the "Korea Value Chain" series and is an original work. It is an analysis based on public data and industry sources; some figures and assessments are estimates. It is not intended as a direct basis for investment decisions.

By Alexandro Lee · July 2026

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