기본 콘텐츠로 건너뛰기

추천 가젯

[밸류체인 데일리 브리핑] 2026-08-11 시황

Value-chain Analytics 데일리 브리핑 2026. 08. 11 (화요일) 오늘의 시황 한눈에 에너지·원자재: 국제유가는 호르무즈 협상 교착으로 5% 급등하며 WTI가 80달러대에 재진입했습니다. 정유사의 석유 수출 물량은 정부 통제 상한선에 미치지 못한 가운데, 가스발전 허가와 폭염에 따른 태양광 발전 증가가 전력 공급 안정 및 기후 공약 논란과 함께 부각되고 있습니다. 동시에 인도는 중국 의존도를 낮추기 위해 희토류 자석 자립화를 추진하고 있으며, 한국 배터리 산업은 인도네시아 의존도가 높은 니켈 공급망을 핵심 취약 요인으로 안고 있습니다. 포스코홀딩스의 2.5조원 확보와 리튬, LNG, 희토류 투자 계획, 고려아연의 한미 광물산업 생태계 참여 가능성도 공급망 재편 흐름을 보여줍니다. 기업 재편·자금조달: KDB생명 인수전은 흥국생명, 한화생명, 한국투자금융지주의 3파전으로 전개되고 있으며, 한화그룹은 KAI 지분 15% 이상 확보를 바탕으로 기업결합심사를 신청할 예정입니다. 제약바이오 업계에서도 합병과 분할을 통한 구조 재편이 빨라지는 모습입니다. 오픈AI는 상장 준비와 연계된 70억달러 규모 구주 매각을 완료했고, 엔비디아는 AI 인프라에 대규모 금융자본을 유치하려는 구상을 내놓았습니다. AI 기업의 기업가치와 자금 조달 규모가 커지는 가운데, 앤스로픽이 위험한 AI의 출시를 정부가 막아야 한다고 주장하면서 산업 성장과 규제 사이의 긴장도 커지고 있습니다. 반도체·배터리·디스플레이: 정부는 5조원 규모의 반도체 신규 펀드를 조성해 메가 클러스터 구축을 지원하고, HBM은 12단에서 8단으로의 후퇴 검토가 제기되며 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 수율 경쟁이 중요 변수로 떠올랐습니다. TSMC는 차세대 CoPoS 패키징 생산라인을 완공했지만 기술 성숙까지 1년이 필요하다는 평가가 나왔습니다. 배터리 분야에서는 삼성SDI의 미국 LFP 생산 계획과 2028년 공급 부족 전망이 제시됐고, CATL은 항공...

[Monopoly-4] Nobody Moves First — Korea's Three Telecoms

Whatever neighborhood you happen to be in, three mobile phone shops always stand within sight of one another, more or less in a row. One red sign, a sign of a different color beside it, and a third a little way off. Only the colors differ; what they sell inside is nearly identical. Even the price plans resemble one another to an uncanny degree. When one shop raises its rates a little, the other two quietly follow; when one puts out a new plan, two similar ones appear within a few weeks. Did they collude on this, you want to ask. But colluding openly is against the law. Moving as if in collusion without ever actually colluding — that is what these three companies have been doing for a very long time.

In the last three stories I wrote about walls that a single company held alone. Today's wall is a little different. This wall was built not by one company but by three, raising it together while facing one another. Economics has a name for this: oligopoly. A handful of players divide a market among themselves and take care never to disturb the lines of the division. SK Telecom, KT, and LG Uplus. This is the story of the three mobile carriers we pay our bills to every month.

An Old Triangle Called Five to Three to Two

For a long time, the ratio by which these three companies divided the market was roughly five to three to two. SK Telecom takes half, KT one in three, LG Uplus the rest. The ratio has stayed unchanged for a surprisingly long time. The picture from ten years ago and the picture from last year lie almost perfectly on top of each other. There are reasons a market can sit this still.

First, no one new can get in. Blanketing the country with base stations and buying up spectrum costs astronomical amounts of money. Over the past dozen or so years there have been several attempts to launch a fourth carrier, and every one of them failed at the threshold and disappeared. The wall was so high that a fourth was never even born. Second, those of us inside rarely move either. Switching carriers is somehow a bother. There is a contract, there is a penalty, and the number portability paperwork is tedious. So most people stay with the same company for ten years, twenty years. I am one of them.

Company (2025, consolidated)RevenueOperating profit2025 in one line
SK Telecom17.0992 trillion won1.0732 trillion wonHacking incident breaks the 40% line
KT28.2442 trillion won2.4691 trillion wonNo. 1 in revenue on non-telecom and real estate
LG Uplus15.4517 trillion won892.1 billion wonThe only one growing
Three combined60.9555 trillion won4.6389 trillion won

In 2025, the three companies' revenues added up to more than 60 trillion won, and their operating profit came to 4.6 trillion. The interesting part is that the revenue leader is not SK Telecom but KT. Twenty-eight trillion won. But this is not money earned from mobile service. KT is a company that carries landline phones and internet, real estate, even a card business, and much of its bulk comes from beyond telecom. Looking purely at the market that fits in the palm of a hand, the one standing at the front is still SK Telecom. Or, to be precise, it was — until the spring of 2025.

The Year the Balance Shook

In April 2025, word got out that the USIM cards holding SK Telecom subscribers' data had been hacked. For a carrier, few kinds of accident are more fatal. What people entrust to a carrier is, in the end, a single thing — trust — and a hole had been punched through the very middle of it. The government ruled the incident the company's fault and told it to waive the shackle that had long held people in place, namely the early termination penalty. SK Telecom accepted.

Here the second reason I mentioned gets turned on its head. People rarely switched carriers largely because switching was a bother and the penalty was frightening. When the penalty disappeared, the locked door swung open for a moment. And people began slipping out through it. After the breach became known, the number of people who left SK Telecom reached 600,000. In the six days after the penalty waiver was announced, 75,000 packed their bags. The 40% share that had never once given way sank below the line for the first time.

The amusing part is what came next. The 600,000 who left SK Telecom did not evaporate; most of them walked straight into the two houses next door. KT and LG Uplus did nothing particularly remarkable. They simply stood in front of the door while it was open. And from that spot they quietly gathered up the fruit. In 2025, while SK Telecom staggered — spending on the order of a trillion won on hacking compensation and even lowering its revenue forecast — the results at KT and LG Uplus rebounded side by side. That is how the triangle of oligopoly is built. When one vertex trembles, the weight does not disappear; it shifts onto the other two.

Inside the Wall, Everyone Builds a Room Next Door

So will these three companies stay comfortable inside this triangle forever. Not necessarily. Because the main house itself — telecom — is a house that no longer grows.

Almost no one in this country goes without a mobile phone now. As with KakaoTalk, there are no new customers left for mobile service to bring in. And rates are an item that politics and public opinion keep under permanent watch, so raising them at will is difficult. So the three companies, as if by appointment, began looking in the same direction. Outside telecom. KT turns toward real estate, cards, and artificial intelligence; LG Uplus toward data centers and non-telecom businesses; SK Telecom toward AI. It is exactly what Kakao and Naver did in the last story, building new rooms on top of the main house of messaging and search. Inside a wall that has finished growing, the only thing left to do is put in another room next door.

The wall of an oligopoly is a curious object. A wall built by one company need only be defended by that one company; a wall built by three is barely held up, the three of them watching one another out of the corners of their eyes. From the outside it looks like the most placid equilibrium in the world. No one lowers rates first, and no one picks a fight first. But that calm holds only while all three vertices stand in place. As SK Telecom showed in 2025, the moment one of them stumbles, the quiet triangle tilts more easily than you would think. And whether that equilibrium was ever really for the consumer — the fact that 600,000 people walked out without hesitation the moment the door briefly opened seems to answer that, faintly.

The Same Oligopoly, Different Timetables

The oligopoly these three companies share shows up just as plainly in their employees' timetables.

CompanyEmployeesAverage annual payAverage tenureRevenue per employeeOperating profit per employee
SK Telecom5,316approx. 163 million won13.7 yearsapprox. 3.22 billion wonapprox. 200 million won
KT14,701approx. 118 million won19.3 yearsapprox. 1.92 billion wonapprox. 170 million won
LG Uplus9,765approx. 117 million won11.3 yearsapprox. 1.58 billion wonapprox. 91 million won

All three pay more than 100 million won a year, but tenure runs from one extreme to the other. KT, which began life as a state enterprise, once averaged 22 years; after the spin-off of its network division and a round of voluntary redundancies in 2025, headcount fell from 19,727 to 14,701, and tenure came down to 19.3 years. Even the timetable inside the wall could not escape restructuring. Still, with Kakao at six-odd years, that is three times as long. The latecomer LG Uplus, meanwhile, sits at eleven-odd years. Even inside the same triangle, when the roots differ, so does the length of time people stay. The older the wall, the longer the people inside it remain.

The next story concerns the last wall. The walls so far were raised by law, by nature, by habit, or by the tacit equilibrium of a few. The last wall is different. A wall built by the force of technology and cost alone, one that only a handful of places in the world can climb. The pillar of our exports, standing these days at the very center of the age of artificial intelligence: the memory semiconductor story of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

This piece is part of the "Korea Value Chain" series and is an original work. It is an analysis based on public data and industry sources; some figures and assessments are estimates. It is not intended as a direct basis for investment decisions.

By Alexandro Lee · July 2026

댓글

가장 많이 본 글