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[밸류체인 데일리 브리핑] 2026-08-11 시황

Value-chain Analytics 데일리 브리핑 2026. 08. 11 (화요일) 오늘의 시황 한눈에 에너지·원자재: 국제유가는 호르무즈 협상 교착으로 5% 급등하며 WTI가 80달러대에 재진입했습니다. 정유사의 석유 수출 물량은 정부 통제 상한선에 미치지 못한 가운데, 가스발전 허가와 폭염에 따른 태양광 발전 증가가 전력 공급 안정 및 기후 공약 논란과 함께 부각되고 있습니다. 동시에 인도는 중국 의존도를 낮추기 위해 희토류 자석 자립화를 추진하고 있으며, 한국 배터리 산업은 인도네시아 의존도가 높은 니켈 공급망을 핵심 취약 요인으로 안고 있습니다. 포스코홀딩스의 2.5조원 확보와 리튬, LNG, 희토류 투자 계획, 고려아연의 한미 광물산업 생태계 참여 가능성도 공급망 재편 흐름을 보여줍니다. 기업 재편·자금조달: KDB생명 인수전은 흥국생명, 한화생명, 한국투자금융지주의 3파전으로 전개되고 있으며, 한화그룹은 KAI 지분 15% 이상 확보를 바탕으로 기업결합심사를 신청할 예정입니다. 제약바이오 업계에서도 합병과 분할을 통한 구조 재편이 빨라지는 모습입니다. 오픈AI는 상장 준비와 연계된 70억달러 규모 구주 매각을 완료했고, 엔비디아는 AI 인프라에 대규모 금융자본을 유치하려는 구상을 내놓았습니다. AI 기업의 기업가치와 자금 조달 규모가 커지는 가운데, 앤스로픽이 위험한 AI의 출시를 정부가 막아야 한다고 주장하면서 산업 성장과 규제 사이의 긴장도 커지고 있습니다. 반도체·배터리·디스플레이: 정부는 5조원 규모의 반도체 신규 펀드를 조성해 메가 클러스터 구축을 지원하고, HBM은 12단에서 8단으로의 후퇴 검토가 제기되며 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 수율 경쟁이 중요 변수로 떠올랐습니다. TSMC는 차세대 CoPoS 패키징 생산라인을 완공했지만 기술 성숙까지 1년이 필요하다는 평가가 나왔습니다. 배터리 분야에서는 삼성SDI의 미국 LFP 생산 계획과 2028년 공급 부족 전망이 제시됐고, CATL은 항공...

[Monopoly-3] The Wall We Rebuild Every Morning — Kakao & Naver

When I wake in the morning, still under the covers, I reach out and pick up my phone. And almost without thinking, I tap the yellow icon. I check the few messages that arrived overnight, then open the green search window and skim the weather and the news. At some point this sequence became fixed. I have no memory of deciding it; it had simply become so.

In the previous two stories I wrote about walls that others built for their occupants. Inside the wall the state built with law lived Kangwon Land and KT&G; inside the wall nature built with its own logic lived KEPCO and Korea Gas Corporation. Today's wall is a little different. It was built neither by the state nor by nature. It was built by none other than us. By our habit of tapping the same icons every morning, without a thought.

Habit is a strange building material. Unlike brick or the language of statutes, it cannot be held in the hand or seen with the eye. And yet certain habits, as tens of millions of people repeat the same motion at the same hour, become astonishingly solid walls. The two companies living inside that wall are Kakao and Naver. A wall we ourselves raise another course higher, every single morning.

A Wall That Stands Because Nobody Leaves First

KakaoTalk's monthly users in Korea number about 48.19 million. The country's population is a little over 52 million, so once you set aside newborns and the very old, effectively the entire nation uses it. Numbers like this are not common. Not even Kangwon Land or KT&G ever covered a country this completely.

The interesting part is why this wall stands. The reason I cannot leave KakaoTalk is not that KakaoTalk is especially better than other messengers. It is simply that all my friends are there. And my friends cannot leave for exactly the same reason. Their friends are there. In the end, nobody uses the app because they particularly want it; everybody stays together because nobody leaves first. The difficult term for this is network effects. I would rather call it the comfort of being locked in together.

It looks like the sturdiest wall in the world. Look a little closer, though, and curious cracks begin to show.

Indicator (2025, consolidated)FigureA note in passing
Revenueapprox. 8,099.1 billion wonFirst time past 8 trillion; all-time high (+3%)
Operating profitapprox. 732 billion wonAll-time high (+48%)
KakaoTalk domestic MAUapprox. 48.19 millionAbout 94% of the population; effectively the whole nation
Annual commerce transaction volumeapprox. 10.6 trillion won+6%

In 2025, Kakao's revenue passed 8 trillion won for the first time, and its operating profit hit an all-time high of 732 billion won. Dazzling, at a glance. Look inside, though, and a somewhat different picture emerges. Revenue grew a mere 3%, while operating profit jumped 48%. What does that mean? It means the money did not come from new customers. Because there are no new customers left to be had. When 94% of the population is already using you, where on earth would you bring more people in from? So instead of adding people, Kakao turned toward collecting a little more from the people already inside the wall. It runs more ads, encourages more gift-giving, and sets things to buy in every corner of the screen.

Outside the wall, things are not what they used to be either. KakaoTalk's overseas users — the ones who were once going to carry it out into the world — have instead fallen 17% over the past five years. At home, however thoroughly the app gets overhauled, the user count barely stirs. It neither grows nor shrinks. Meanwhile, people's time leaks away, little by little, to other places. To YouTube, to Instagram, into short videos a few seconds long. The wall is as high as ever, but the time spent inside it is not as long as it once was.

A Wall Whose Height Nobody Knows

Naver's wall stands on the habit called search. The habit of opening the green window first, whenever you wonder about something. This habit, too, is old, and still firm. But this wall has a curious feature that Kakao's does not. Its height, in truth, is known exactly to no one.

By one measure, based on domestic data, Naver's share of search in 2025 comes out to 62.9%. Google, at just over 30%. A cheerful story of recovering the 60% line for the first time in three years. But by another measure, based on the flow of the worldwide web, Google is said to have overtaken Naver for the first time in some month of that same year. Google 52%, Naver 38%. The same search market in the same country, and depending on whom you ask, Naver is either the overwhelming number one or a number two being pushed aside. Because the wall of habit is invisible, everyone who comes to measure its height brings a different ruler.

Indicator (2025, consolidated)FigureA note in passing
Revenueapprox. 12,035 billion wonAll-time high (+12.1%)
Operating profitapprox. 2,208.1 billion won+11.6%
Search Platform revenueapprox. 4,168.9 billion won+5.6% (search, the main house)
Commerce revenueapprox. 3,688.4 billion won+26.2% (a new room built onto search)

Here is where Naver parts ways with Kakao. If Kakao is squeezing money out of a wall that has stopped growing, Naver has been busily building new rooms on top of its old wall of search. In 2025 Naver's revenue passed 12 trillion won, an all-time high, and most of that growth came not from search itself but from the things attached alongside it. Commerce revenue grew a full 26% in a single year. People come in to search, and while they are at it, they buy things and make payments and read webtoons. Once a person has crossed the threshold called search, Naver rarely lets them back out.

And lately, artificial intelligence has been added to all this. Naver says that more than half of its 2025 growth in advertising and commerce came thanks to AI. Onto the old habit of search, it is fitting new pillars made of new technology. Nobody knows how long the wall will hold, so it looks like someone determined to build, while it holds, everything that can be built on top of it.

The Walls We Build, We Tear Down Ourselves

Three walls in, I begin to see that walls have temperaments of their own.

A wall the state builds, the state tears down; a wall nature builds hardly ever falls. No reason to lay a second power grid is ever going to appear. But a wall built by habit is a little different. It looks the tallest, and it is in fact the most precarious. A wall someone else built, someone else can tear down — but a wall we built, we can tear down ourselves. And very quietly, at that. All it would take is one morning when tens of millions of hands reach out and begin tapping a different icon.

That will not happen tomorrow, of course. Habit is heavy, and 48 million people rarely change direction all at once. But the time spent inside the wall is shortening bit by bit; there is no one left outside to come in; and the rulers measuring the wall's height have started returning different answers. These small signals, Kakao and Naver know better than anyone. That is why the two companies keep building, without pause, new rooms called advertising and commerce and AI on top of the main houses called messaging and search. The wall itself earns no money. Messages are free, and so is search. The money is only ever made after you have kept people inside the wall.

This morning, once again, I tapped the yellow icon and the green one. Tomorrow morning I probably will too. Only now I know that this one absent-minded motion of the hand is, in fact, the laying of one more brick on the walls of two enormous companies. Every morning, with our own hands, we build a little higher the walls that hold us in. And someday, when those walls are torn down, it will be the same hands that do it.

High Pay, Short Tenure

This wall of habit, however, works a little differently on the people employed inside it.

CompanyEmployeesAverage annual payAverage tenureRevenue per employeeOperating profit per employee
Naver5,047approx. 146 million won7.7 yearsapprox. 2.38 billion wonapprox. 440 million won
Kakao3,922approx. 109 million won6.3 yearsapprox. 2.07 billion wonapprox. 190 million won

Pay at both companies tops 100 million won, enough to earn them the ‘workplace of the gods’ label, but average tenure, at six to eight years, is less than half that of the companies we saw earlier. The wall is high, yet people pass in and out of it often. That is the metabolism of the developer world, where people move from company to company in search of better terms. A wall built of habit holds its consumers for a long time; the people who actually build it, it cannot hold nearly so long.

The next story is about the fourth kind of wall. This time it is a wall built not by one company but by a few companies joining hands. Why the phone bill in our hands always comes out about the same — the quiet equilibrium of the three mobile carriers.

This piece is part of the "Korea Value Chain" series and is an original work. It is an analysis based on public data and industry sources; some figures and assessments are estimates. It is not intended as a direct basis for investment decisions.

By Alexandro Lee · July 2026

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