기본 콘텐츠로 건너뛰기

추천 가젯

[밸류체인 데일리 브리핑] 2026-08-11 시황

Value-chain Analytics 데일리 브리핑 2026. 08. 11 (화요일) 오늘의 시황 한눈에 에너지·원자재: 국제유가는 호르무즈 협상 교착으로 5% 급등하며 WTI가 80달러대에 재진입했습니다. 정유사의 석유 수출 물량은 정부 통제 상한선에 미치지 못한 가운데, 가스발전 허가와 폭염에 따른 태양광 발전 증가가 전력 공급 안정 및 기후 공약 논란과 함께 부각되고 있습니다. 동시에 인도는 중국 의존도를 낮추기 위해 희토류 자석 자립화를 추진하고 있으며, 한국 배터리 산업은 인도네시아 의존도가 높은 니켈 공급망을 핵심 취약 요인으로 안고 있습니다. 포스코홀딩스의 2.5조원 확보와 리튬, LNG, 희토류 투자 계획, 고려아연의 한미 광물산업 생태계 참여 가능성도 공급망 재편 흐름을 보여줍니다. 기업 재편·자금조달: KDB생명 인수전은 흥국생명, 한화생명, 한국투자금융지주의 3파전으로 전개되고 있으며, 한화그룹은 KAI 지분 15% 이상 확보를 바탕으로 기업결합심사를 신청할 예정입니다. 제약바이오 업계에서도 합병과 분할을 통한 구조 재편이 빨라지는 모습입니다. 오픈AI는 상장 준비와 연계된 70억달러 규모 구주 매각을 완료했고, 엔비디아는 AI 인프라에 대규모 금융자본을 유치하려는 구상을 내놓았습니다. AI 기업의 기업가치와 자금 조달 규모가 커지는 가운데, 앤스로픽이 위험한 AI의 출시를 정부가 막아야 한다고 주장하면서 산업 성장과 규제 사이의 긴장도 커지고 있습니다. 반도체·배터리·디스플레이: 정부는 5조원 규모의 반도체 신규 펀드를 조성해 메가 클러스터 구축을 지원하고, HBM은 12단에서 8단으로의 후퇴 검토가 제기되며 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스의 수율 경쟁이 중요 변수로 떠올랐습니다. TSMC는 차세대 CoPoS 패키징 생산라인을 완공했지만 기술 성숙까지 1년이 필요하다는 평가가 나왔습니다. 배터리 분야에서는 삼성SDI의 미국 LFP 생산 계획과 2028년 공급 부족 전망이 제시됐고, CATL은 항공...

[Invisible Monopoly-3] The Rated Pay the Raters — Credit Rating Agencies

A while ago, flipping through the business news, I read that a construction company's credit rating had been cut a notch. A+ had become A — a story about a single mark falling off a string of letters. I don't even own the company's bonds, but my mood darkened for a moment, and I had forgotten the whole thing before my coffee went cold. And yet because of that one fallen mark, somewhere, tens of billions of won in interest were being recalculated. Who exactly are the people who assign that letter? That day, I didn't think that far.

If the reinsurance of the last chapter was a wall with an open door, the doors of these companies are locked with a padlock called a license. The overseas giants plainly exist — and still they cannot walk in.

Companies get report cards too. Letters of the alphabet, running from AAA down to D. That one short mark determines the interest a company must pay when it borrows money. Between AAA and BBB, the cost of funding can differ by tens of billions of won. So it is a rather heavy letter. And the companies that assign this heavy letter number exactly three in Korea: Korea Investors Service, Korea Ratings, and NICE Investors Service.

A Wall Shared by Three

The shares the three companies hold are almost perfectly equal. Together they account for 99% of the domestic corporate bond rating market, and for a long time that market has been split into thirds, as if someone had drawn the lines with a ruler. This is not the result of collusion. Credit rating is a licensed business that requires authorization from the financial authorities, and the licenses for rating corporate bonds have effectively stayed with these three. A new competitor couldn't get in for the simple reason that there was no door to get in through. It is the same lineage as Kangwon Land's casino license and SGI Seoul Guarantee's Insurance Business Act wall. Only this time, there are three people sitting inside the wall instead of one.

Half the Wall Is in New York

Look a little closer at the three, and an interesting fact comes into view. This surprised me too when I looked up the ownership: two of the three are not Korean companies. Korea Investors Service is a wholly owned subsidiary of Moody's, the global rating agency, and the largest shareholder of Korea Ratings is Fitch, another of the global big three. Only NICE Investors Service is owned by domestic capital.

This is no coincidence. The world's credit rating market, too, is divided more than 95% among just three firms — Moody's, S&P, and Fitch. Just as Korean Re's most valuable rooms turned out, in the last chapter, to be occupied by overseas players, in the world of credit ratings more than half of the domestic wall already belongs to New York and London. Only the method is different. With the door locked by license, they came in through the window instead — by buying up the domestic companies' shares outright. And a good part of what Korea Investors Service and Korea Ratings earn eventually turns into dividends and flows back out that window.

The Rated Pay the Raters

Hidden in this wall is a structure that looks strange to anyone. Getting a credit rating costs money, and the money is paid by the very company being rated. A firm that wants to issue bonds pays the agency a fee and comes back with a grade. There is an obvious tension here. How coldly can I score a customer who pays me? The rating industry has, in fact, long been suspected of grading generously. Issuers who want good ratings, and agencies who collect fees from those issuers. Grade too harshly, and the customer walks next door to the agency across the street.

And yet — or perhaps precisely because of this — business at the three companies stays steadily good. Just looking at Korea Ratings, the only listed one of the three, recent net profit grew nearly 20%, and dividends of close to 4,000 won per share have kept coming. A market with only three competitors, all three earning money the same way inside the same structure. The wall is quiet, and the profits are stable.

The People Who Leave God's Workplace

Up to now I have written that the people inside walls like these rarely leave. But at the credit rating agencies, for the first time, a slightly different scene comes into view. Rating agencies were long known in Yeouido as ‘God's workplace’ — the local name for a job so secure and so well paid it seems heaven-made. Average pay at Korea Ratings clears 100 million won with room to spare, and the other two sit somewhere in that neighborhood. High pay, stable seats. Workplaces that drew envy.

CompanyEmployeesAverage annual payAverage tenureRevenue per employeeOperating profit per employee
Korea Ratings172126.91 million won11.5 yearsapprox. 640 million wonapprox. 200 million won

※ Based on 2025 disclosures. Korea Ratings is the only listed company of the three, so it is also the only one whose disclosed figures can be checked. Per-employee figures are rough values: consolidated revenue of 109.8 billion won and operating profit of 34.3 billion won divided by headcount.

The place the eye comes to rest in this table is, once again, the far left. 172. The corporate bonds issued in this country are graded — at this company, at any rate — by 172 people. A density in which one person generates more than 600 million won of revenue a year. But density is a two-sided word. It also means that the weight of the reports and the responsibility resting on each pair of shoulders is exactly that much.

And yet in the past few years, young analysts one or two years into the job have been leaving in a steady line. Most of them moved to brokerages or asset managers. As the number of rating reports each person had to write grew and the work grew heavier, there came to be people whom a high salary alone could no longer hold. The profit that a density of 172 creates, and the speed at which that same density wears people down — the two are the front and back of a single number. The wall stands as solid as ever, but the young people inside it are the first to look out over it. It is a scene we have not seen before in this series.

The three rating agencies appear to compete with one another. The three grade side by side, and sometimes hand the same company different scores. But what they truly contend for is not so much the accuracy of the grade as the heart of the customer who will come to collect one. In a structure where the rated pay the raters, the three walls end up facing the same direction. And the owners of two of those walls are across the sea. The next time I read that some company's rating has been cut, I suspect I will think first not of the alphabet but of the nights of the hundred-seventy-odd people behind it. One letter, built up out of those nights, moves tens of billions of won.

So much for the walls whose doors stand open, or locked with a license. But at the innermost point of this plumbing sits a monopoly with no concept of a door at all. A wall for which no alternative can even be imagined. A wall the state built on purpose — not for profit, but to protect something. The next story is about a company that reveals its existence only when a bank fails.

This piece is part of the "Korea Value Chain" series and is an original work. It is an analysis based on public data and industry sources; some figures and assessments are estimates. It is not intended as a direct basis for investment decisions.

By Alexandro Lee · July 2026

댓글

가장 많이 본 글